I am not sure why I do this to myself because, as American Idol proves to me week after week, I’m often wrong, but I just can’t help it. I love predicting the winners of reality TV competitions. Why? It gives me a way to participate without actually having to go to the Island myself.

Eeek! I would so not do well on Survivor. I can’t go a day without a shower…or a toothbrush. I’ll be right back—gotta brush my teeth.

OCD aside, Survivor Fiji is finally getting interesting. The castaways’ characters are emerging. We’ve: got Alex the Sexy Snake, Mookie the Jerk, Dreamz the Idiot, Cassandra the Vecepia, Earl the Strong, Yau-Man the Intellect, Boo the Clumsy and Stacy the Dark Horse.

We have good guys and gals (obviously) and some bad ones. Alex and Mookie were part of the Four Horsemen alliance. Any group that names their alliance “The Four Horsemen” needs to be shot, but besides that, these dudes severely miscalculated their popularity and underestimated their opponents. The also assumed that Stacy would fall in line because…I don’t know, and I don’t think they do either.

Last week, Dreamz took the John Kerry approach to the game. The dude flipped sides so many times I wished they had a little note at the bottom of the screen to let us know where his allegiance really lay.

Dreamz’ Benedict Arnold act broke the Horsemen up and lost them the Immunity Idol. Alex and Mookie were desperate to repair the damage that was done. They searched Yau-Man’s stuff while he was off fishing, and found the other Immunity Idol. Then, they blackmailed Yau-Man with the information. Yau-Man, who I loved up until this point, said that they could do whatever they had to do, and it wouldn’t screw with the order much. I think he was being honest, but it really came off as cocky.

Alex and Mookie did tell the others. Cassandra and Stacy—Boo was sent to Exile Island—were upset that the Two Stooges, which is a much better name for their new alliance, went into Yau-Man’s stuff. Dreamz, however, was angry that Yau-Man kept the info from him. Earl, of course, knew Yau-Man had the Idol, but he didn’t mention he knew about it before, and Yau-Man, to his credit, didn’t rat his pal out.

However, Alex and Mookie’s move has cost Yau-Man a million dollars. I was pretty sure he was a shoo-in for the finale, and had a good chance to win, until this incident. Now, I think Yau-Man’s place within his own alliance is much less secure. I do agree that he will be able to ride out a few more weeks. Mookie left last night because Alex voted against him. Alex has no chance in hell of winning. I just can’t see it at all. If he doesn’t leave next week, I’ll be shocked.

Dreamz is also a definite no to win. He’s played both sides against each other. He may be the last of the Horsemen to go, but that’s about as far as he’s gonna take it. At this point, the “Alliance”—I’m not sure what to call ‘em—will have to begin turning on itself. I see Boo and Yau-Man as the first casualties. That leaves a three-person finale with Earl, Cassandra and Stacy.

Who will win? Well, any one of these three would be a fine choice. I like Earl the best, but think that Stacy has played the best strategic game. Did you see how she knocked Alex and Yau-Man out last night to win Immunity? It was classic. Don’t forget—she’s also the one who came up with the idea to knock out Edgardo last week in a move that totally switched up the game.  

The best thing is that no one really perceives her as such a major threat…yet.

I do think that, at some point, the castaways will catch on, and the Jury just won’t be able to vote for her to win.

Cassandra, on the other hand, hasn’t really ticked anyone off. She’s very nice and has her pals. She’s like the mom, but not in an overbearing way. She’s supportive and doesn’t stand out. She’s completely non-threatening, and…

I think Cassandra will win a million dollars this season. Don’t you?

In this video, Edgardo talks about his shocking elimination: